Four degrees or more? Australia in a hot world

Conference organizer, Associate Professor Peter Christoff, teaches climate policy at the University of Melbourne. For him the logic underlying the conference is straightforward.

“Public policy aims to achieve specific, well-defined goals yet it often leads to unintended consequences,” he says.

“This conference aims to examine the unintended consequences of Australian climate policy. At present, it seems, the implicit ‘aim’ of climate policy, here and internationally, is to achieve a world of four degrees or more.’

Over two and a half days, the “Four Degrees” conference will first look at the science and then the impacts of a ‘Hot World’ for Australia, and finally at the policy challenges and alternatives that might steer us away from such an outcome.

The line-up of speakers to address the science and impacts of ‘four degrees’ includes key contributors to international climate policy and science, such as Professors John Schellnhuber and Malte Meinshausen, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

It will also include significant national contributors such as Professor Ross Garnaut, Independent Adviser to the Government’s Multi-Party Climate Change Committee and author of the Garnaut Review and its recent update, Climate Commissioner Professor Lesley Hughes, Professor David Karoly - a member of the Scientific Advisory Panel to the Climate Commission, Climate Commissioner Professor Will Steffen, and Dr Penny Whetton - Senior Principal Research Scientist at CSIRO’s Climate Adaptation Flagship.

Last month, the Climate Commission’s report, “The Critical Decade: Climate science, risks and responses”, underlined the urgency of collective action. Its core message about “the critical decade” has been broadcast by scientists with increasing urgency in recent years. Yet the gap between science and climate policy seems to be growing.

In Copenhagen in 2009, the international community pledged to keep average global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius. Such a commitment, important if achieved, would still cause serious changes across the planet. Vulnerable continents such as Africa and Australia would experience substantial climate-related impacts. Significant sea-level rise would eventually be the death knell for low-lying island states.

Copenhagen also saw both developed and developing countries make voluntary pledges to reduce their emissions by 2020. In most instances, the targets pledged were determined by what each country saw as politically feasible and economically comfortable over this period, rather than by what the science suggests is required to avoid dangerous climate change. Indeed, scientists now warn these pledges, if met without further amendment, would commit the planet to warming of at least four degrees.

“We seem to have lost sight of the bigger picture,” Associate Professor Christoff says.

“For instance, the debate about climate policy in Australia has contracted to an exhausting tussle over putting a price on carbon. Important though this first step is, we aren’t considering the pace of change, and measures and goals, required for Australia to play its part in averting catastrophic global warming.

“We haven’t considered – in detail - the costs of failure. This understanding should, in part, be driving our actions and defining our goals. This conference is about imagining what we must avoid and then seeing how we can do just that.”

At such high levels of warming, the impacts on global systems of food production, on water availability, on human health, and on other species would be considerable.

Professor Will Steffen, Executive Director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University and author of the recent Climate Commission report, acknowledges that, “we are already seeing significant changes in Australia’s environment as a result of climate change. In a ‘Four Degree World’, the transformation of our continent’s terrestrial and marine ecosystems would be dramatic and the changes largely irreversible.”

The impacts of these changes would inevitably affect both the global economy and national productivity. If we haven’t moved decisively to tackle emissions reduction during the next decade, the economic and social consequences of inaction will begin to mount, and the costs and difficulties of avoiding serious impacts increase significantly. Likely problems for adaptation will be addressed by leading economists, lawyers, doctors and geographers, including Professors Ross Garnaut, Jan McDonald, Tony McMichael, and Jean Palutikof.

The conference will also look at the policy challenges for reducing emissions fairly and fast.

“There is no point of warming from now on at which we can say ‘that’s perfectly safe’,” warns Professor Garnaut.

“Neither is there a point at which we can say ‘the damage is done so we might as well just adapt’. If we don’t see a consistent strengthening of action from now on, the chance of holding the increase to two degrees will have gone, and the costs and difficulties of adapting to climate change increase significantly.”

Professor John Schellnhuber is Chair of the German Government’s Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change, Chief Government Adviser on Climate and Related Issues during Germany’s EU Council Presidency and Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. He will examine the need for a global carbon budget approach to reducing emissions efficiently and equitably, and the implications of such an approach for high-emitting countries like Australia.

The conference is likely to paint a stark picture of the future if effective action fails. But it also will offer a critical assessment of the paths for successful action.

It is clear, says Anna Skarbek, Director of ClimateWorks at Monash University, that “opportunities exist now for significant action in Australia to reduce our emissions. One of the key messages of this conference is that we still can choose which future we will have.”

Conference details at:
www.fourdegrees2011.com.au